Lack of New Product - Enthusiasm Diminished?

[k43rover]

As a relatively new member, I find that I can learn an awful lot just by 1) lurking and reading; and 2) searching. There's an amazing amount of information and expertise available here! I think I count as "enthusiastic", even though I don't post a lot.

As a new member, I think this is a key point. I have been tempted many times since joining to post a brand new topic (typically a question) but have disciplined myself to resist until I have done a proper search. Almost invariably I find that the topic I'm interested in has been discussed many times previously - usually in depth and in a way that completely answers the question I had in mind. I certainly don't want to waste longstanding forumites time answering the same questions and I suspect many recent joiners would hold off posting for the same reason...that would likely account for lower frequency of posts for new joiners than for those who have been on the forum many years.

As far as enthusiasm for new product is concerned, one of the things which directly impacts my own interest is my perception of the relative "value" of buying new versus vintage. With the seemingly continuous increase in cost/price of new product versus the apparant significant tailing off in vintage values, the relative attraction of buying a vintage guitar is probably somewhat greater than it would have been a few years ago...

[jingle_jangle]

I think this cost/value oddity is a short-term thing. We'll see the lid come off vintage stuff again and the demand for new instruments will gradually increase, too.

Vintage Ricks are undervalued when compared to other (ironically) much more common major brands. True, though, that the really "hot" items have been in a bubble for years.

New Ricks are also underpriced when compared to other American-made name brands.

In either case, supply and demand will take care of things as soon as normalcy returns.

[k43rover]

I think this cost/value oddity is a short-term thing. We'll see the lid come off vintage stuff again and the demand for new instruments will gradually increase, too.

Vintage Ricks are undervalued when compared to other (ironically) much more common major brands.

These are interesting times when it comes to investment in rare collectibles. if you look at the market for the very finest works of art, record prices (as denominated in US$) are still regularly being broken....I don't think this is that surprising given that the US (and other) governments seen delighted to run their currency presses at full speed to try and inflate their way out of recession (and pay down debt in funny money)... against that backdrop it would be surprising if hard assets (fine works of art, precious metals etc) were not rising in $ terms at a rate of knots as a hedge against currency devaluation... However, the market for some collectibles (like many classic guitars and classic cars) does not seem to be rising in $ denominated terms...in fact it seems quite the reverse is happening. Personally, I agree with you Paul, I don't see how this can last - in the mid to long term I would personally much sooner have cash in a fine automobile or guitar than sitting in a currency account with miniscule interest payable and becoming increasingly worthless as governments knowingly compete in a race to the bottom to debase their currencies....

[jingle_jangle]

Don't forget the difference in behavior between ultra-high-end items and middle-of-the-road collectibles.

A Picasso or a house in Bel-Air? Oh, sure, they'll respond to the market in some way, but in general it's easier to liquidate high end items to people whose disposable income isn't tied to every economic fluctuation.

Guitars--even super-premium items like '59 LP flame-tops--are in a much lower class and take bigger hits in bad times because much of their demographic has gone dry.

Instruments with celebrity provenance are in another class entirely, and this, too, depends on the level of celebrity.