Rickresource Rickenbacker Forum

I crunched some numbers today in a pointless and likely foolish attempt to guess how many 4002's were made.

I used a few approaches.

Since I'm trying to figure out something we don't know, I started by using what we DO know. The best resource for this is the RRF register's listings of limited edition instruments.

Also, we know there are 19 4002's registered.

Most of the LE's have a clearly defined production total, e.g., 250, 1000, 2000, etc.

Some, as many of us know, were cut short. This is where I have some gaps in my knowledge. Please post corrections as you see them and are certain.

Here is the first chart I made. "LE era" refers to what I've roughly defined as three time periods. I felt this was important to consider given the variance in Rickenbackers' popularity throughout the years, particularly the relative and so-called "drought" in the 80's.

LE-------RRF------Prod.----Year LE era
PT-------23-------250-----1987-----Era 1
RM------100------1000-----1987----Era 1
JK-------23-------250------1988----Era 1
SH-------34------250------1988-----Era 1
JL-------122------2000-----1990----Era 2
CS------142------1000-----1991----Era 2
TP-------96------1000-----1991-----Era 2
GF-------11------1000-----1995-----Era 2
CW------94------500------2000-----Era 3
LK-------10------60-------2000-----Era 3

By deciding that my "Era 1" is the closest to the time period that 4002's were produced, we'll look at that section in particular. By calculating the average of instruments registered in Era 1, I get 10.29%. This is weighted 4/7 on the RM, and 1/7 each on the JK, SH, and PT (since there were 1000 RM's and 250 each of the other three). This leads me to my first conclusion, approximately 185 4002's produced.

We are far from done.

Next, I thought it might be a good idea to add some more factors, particularly collectability and accuracy of production count. This is more important in Eras 2 and 3 noted above, but much more subjective to opinion. I did not spend too much time on this chart, and I understand many people will have objections to this portion. I made the following table:

LE-------Collect. Acc. LE count
PT------10--------10
RM------8--------10
JK------5*--------10
SH------9--------10
JL-------7--------10
CS-------9--------5*
TP-------6--------10
GF-------3--------2*
CW------7--------10
LK------10--------5*
---------74-------82------156 Total Weights

* denotes uncertainty on my part

For example, since the PT is very collectable and we have an accurate count of the completed production, it gets 20/156 weights. The GF, sadly, is not too popular, and we don't know how many were made, so it only gets 5/156 weights.

In this example, I've used the LE's individual percentages rather than the era average above. So PT, which has 23/250 registrations, or 9.20%, is multiplied by 20/156 to get 0.011795. The sum of this number for all LE's is 11.4846%. This leads me to my second conclusion of approximately 165 4002's produced.

Averaging conclusions one and two leads us to approximately 175 4002's produced.

It's still a pretty wild guess. I've heard experts here guess as few as 50 or 75.

What do you think?


(Edit - yes, I know the 4002 is not a limited edition. I only used LE's since we know how many were made, and we dont' for regular models.)

It may seem like a wild guess (and in some ways it is), but you've used some benchmarks that, as you said, can be more or less verified by the registry. In any case, even given the very low estimates you added at the end of you post, you're still only off by a factor of about 2 - 3.5, which is really quite good when shooting in the dark (OK, more like dusk) like this. I've typically used about 10% (from what I've seen here) as a decent approximation of the percentage of each of the more "unusual" instruments that is documented by the Registry, so your numbers make sense there too. I'm not sure how you could realistically expect to get that much better of a estimate.

I'll add this caveat though: Consider the nature of the 4002 relative to other less-common Ricks. The 4002 was marketed more to the professional player to be used in the studio. You might consider the ratio of professional and/or studio musicians to the average "RIck enthusiast" here on the forum and make some assessment as to whether you think owners of a 4002 are more or less likely to have their instrument documented in the Registry compared to the limited editions you cited. Then consider how long it's been since the instruments were purchased new and assess whether most of them are likely to be still in the hands of professional/studio musicians or if more of them have trickled down to collectors. Just getting to the point as to whether the statistical methods you used are relevant and applicable to the question you are trying to answer.

Oh, and no math is pointless, as my rambling post clearly demonstrates.

Excellent caveat, John, and thanks. That deserves further thought.

I just used the simple math equation - how many teeth do hen's have?

marc61 wrote:I just used the simple math equation - how many teeth do hen's have?

Not enough, I suspect.

Slow afternoon, Jdog??

Interesting.

jdogric12 wrote:I crunched some numbers today in a pointless and likely foolish attempt to guess how many 4002's were made.

I used a few approaches.

Since I'm trying to figure out something we don't know, I started by using what we DO know. The best resource for this is the RRF register's listings of limited edition instruments.

Also, we know there are 19 4002's registered.

Most of the LE's have a clearly defined production total, e.g., 250, 1000, 2000, etc.

Some, as many of us know, were cut short. This is where I have some gaps in my knowledge. Please post corrections as you see them and are certain.

Here is the first chart I made. "LE era" refers to what I've roughly defined as three time periods. I felt this was important to consider given the variance in Rickenbackers' popularity throughout the years, particularly the relative and so-called "drought" in the 80's.

LE-------RRF------Prod.----Year LE era
PT-------23-------250-----1987-----Era 1
RM------100------1000-----1987----Era 1
JK-------23-------250------1988----Era 1
SH-------34------250------1988-----Era 1
JL-------122------2000-----1990----Era 2
CS------142------1000-----1991----Era 2
TP-------96------1000-----1991-----Era 2
GF-------11------1000-----1995-----Era 2
CW------94------500------2000-----Era 3
LK-------10------60-------2000-----Era 3

By deciding that my "Era 1" is the closest to the time period that 4002's were produced, we'll look at that section in particular. By calculating the average of instruments registered in Era 1, I get 10.29%. This is weighted 4/7 on the RM, and 1/7 each on the JK, SH, and PT (since there were 1000 RM's and 250 each of the other three). This leads me to my first conclusion, approximately 185 4002's produced.

We are far from done.

Next, I thought it might be a good idea to add some more factors, particularly collectability and accuracy of production count. This is more important in Eras 2 and 3 noted above, but much more subjective to opinion. I did not spend too much time on this chart, and I understand many people will have objections to this portion. I made the following table:

LE-------Collect. Acc. LE count
PT------10--------10
RM------8--------10
JK------5*--------10
SH------9--------10
JL-------7--------10
CS-------9--------5*
TP-------6--------10
GF-------3--------2*
CW------7--------10
LK------10--------5*
---------74-------82------156 Total Weights

* denotes uncertainty on my part

For example, since the PT is very collectable and we have an accurate count of the completed production, it gets 20/156 weights. The GF, sadly, is not too popular, and we don't know how many were made, so it only gets 5/156 weights.

In this example, I've used the LE's individual percentages rather than the era average above. So PT, which has 23/250 registrations, or 9.20%, is multiplied by 20/156 to get 0.011795. The sum of this number for all LE's is 11.4846%. This leads me to my second conclusion of approximately 165 4002's produced.

Averaging conclusions one and two leads us to approximately 175 4002's produced.

It's still a pretty wild guess. I've heard experts here guess as few as 50 or 75.

What do you think?


(Edit - yes, I know the 4002 is not a limited edition. I only used LE's since we know how many were made, and we dont' for regular models.)

Damn Accountant mind!

LOL....

My method is very simple.

Be it 1 or 1000....can I afford one? NO? Who cares how many exist, I'll never have one!

Only messin' with ya Jdog...but you aren't far off from what many forum members GUESSTIMATE the number of 200 4002's may have been made.

ajish4 wrote:Be it 1 or 1000....can I afford one? NO? Who cares how many exist, I'll never have one!

Me too.

i'll never have one AGAIN----same for my 66 jazz bass,68 tele,67 embassy,4005,early 70s 4001.....they have just become way too expensive for me...